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Lesson 9 of 17Beginner6 min

How do you work out breakeven and probability of profit on a crypto option?

The breakeven is the price at expiry where the trade makes exactly zero. For a bought call it is the strike plus the premium; for a bought put, the strike minus the premium. The chance of profit is how likely today's option prices say Bitcoin is to end past that breakeven.

Real Delta Exchange quotes · 24 Sep, 9:39 am ISTFree, no account needed

The zero line

The breakeven is the price where the trade makes exactly zero at expiry. For a bought call it is the strike plus the premium per BTC.

Find it with the slider. Then look at the chance of profit under the picture: that is what today's option prices imply about ending past the breakeven. It is a market estimate, not a promise.

The position · expires Fri 2 OctBuy 84,500 call1,498 per BTC10 lots = 0.01 BTC · real Delta Exchange quotes
If Bitcoin is at85,270
+1.6% from today
at expiryFriday
you lose7.28
On ExpiryOn Target Date
−40.0−30.0−20.0−10.00.0010.020.030.040.0-1SD+1SDCurrent price: 83,92780,00082,00084,00086,00088,000Profit / loss

Profit or loss if the price is 85,270(your target)

DateProfit / loss
On target dateFri, 2 Oct−7.28loss
On expiry dateFri, 2 Oct−7.28loss

Move over the graph to read any price; tap or click to set it as the target.

  1. The 84,500 call is worth 770 per BTC (85,270 − 84,500).
  2. On 0.01 BTC that is 7.70 USDT.
  3. You paid 14.98 USDT for it.
  4. Result: −7.28 USDT.
Max profit unlimitedMax loss 15.0Breakeven 85,998Chance of profit 31%Premium paid 15.0
Try this
Quick check

Strike 76,000. You paid 1,180 per BTC. Breakeven at expiry?

Answer the quick check to finish. Your progress stays in this browser.

Next: Your first paper trade

Key terms

Breakeven
The price where the trade makes zero at expiry.
Chance of profit
The probability, implied by option prices, of ending in profit.
Payoff
The result at every possible price at expiry.
Maximum profit and loss
The best and worst outcomes at expiry.

Questions people ask

What is the breakeven of a short strangle on Bitcoin?

It has two: the put strike minus the total premium collected, and the call strike plus it. Between them the trade profits at expiry.

Is a high chance of profit always better?

No. Trades with a high chance of profit usually win small and lose big. Look at the chance of profit together with the size of the win and the loss.

Where does chance of profit come from?

From option prices: a model reads the implied volatility and works out how likely the price is to end past the breakeven. It is an estimate, not a promise.

Keep going

Breakeven formulas

Bought call: strike + premium. Bought put: strike − premium. Sold options break even at the same prices, with the roles reversed. Spreads and condors break even where their payoff crosses zero, which a payoff chart shows at a glance.

Reading chance of profit in a volatile market

Crypto's higher volatility spreads the likely outcomes wider, so the same strike distance gives a lower chance of profit on Bitcoin than on a calmer asset. A high number is not good or bad on its own; it pays in a different way. The simulator above shows the breakevens and the chance of profit on today's real prices.

Written by the Algoclear team · Updated 22 September 2026 · Examples use Bitcoin options on Delta Exchange India.

Practise it on real prices.

Every tool is free to explore. Build it, try it on paper, and let the engine run it when you are ready.

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Options trading carries risk, and you can lose money. Algoclear is a trading tool, not investment advice.